An Uncertain Future.

While the CWC’s successes have been unmatched, “threats haven’t disappeared,” notes Revill. In the last decade, we’ve seen Syria’s use of chemical weapons, the poisoning of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny and the assassination of North Korean defector Kim Jong-nam. Experimentation and deployment of AI-designed toxins and dual-use chemicals are adding complexity to detection and enforcement.

All of this is unfolding amid escalating geopolitical tensions, which further complicates efforts at prevention and accountability. Recent policy changes in Washington are straining U.S. ties to the very institutions and agreements that hold international security together – and they have arms controls experts on edge.
“Actions being taken right now,” Kimball warns, “will fundamentally reshape the U.S. role in every arms control regime that keeps the world from sliding into chaos. When the U.S. is engaged – when we fund, lead and show up – these agreements work. When we pull back, they unravel.”

“It sends a dangerous message that treaties are optional and accountability is negotiable,” Kimball says. “That’s how norms die.”